{"id":20292,"date":"2022-08-19T03:45:52","date_gmt":"2022-08-18T15:45:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/philcook.net\/beerdiary\/?p=20292"},"modified":"2023-07-18T19:05:41","modified_gmt":"2023-07-18T07:05:41","slug":"medals-and-math-iv","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/philcook.net\/beerdiary\/2022\/08\/19\/medals-and-math-iv\/","title":{"rendered":"Medals and math IV \u2014 two in a row seems like it means something…"},"content":{"rendered":"

CORRECTION \u2014 the original version of this post incorrectly said that ‘Chance, Luck & Magic’ was the overall Champion Beer for the second year running. It wasn’t; Burkes Brewing ‘Unforgiven’ Porter<\/a> won in 2021. Thanks to Michael Donaldson<\/a> for noticing and letting me know. The data<\/em> here is unaffected, but some of my commentary was thereby off.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"An<\/a>
A cork popped by way of congratulations<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

After this year’s Brewers’ Guild of New Zealand Awards \u2014 the BGONZAs, to their friends \u2014 the headline result was unusually clear: Garage Project<\/span>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span> just absolutely smashed it. Their ‘Chance, Luck & Magic’ took out the Best In Show award, prompting me to buy a $49 bottle of beer (which was suitably delicious, I should note), and they won the Champion Large Brewery title (for the second year running, no less) in spectacularly unambiguous fashion, since at least<\/em> two other breweries would need to merge and pool their winnings to come close to G.P.’s medal haul.<\/span>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span> After that, it might seem superfluous to dig in the weeds of the data for other stories lurking in the details, but I have my traditions, and I am undeterred \u2014 and I think there’s still some things worthy of a little more attention.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

So, as I do with every fresh batch of results now, I’ve calculated two ‘scores’ for each brewery that are extra ways of looking at how well they performed. MPC<\/strong> is\u00a0medal percentage<\/em>: how many beers entered won a medal (any medal).\u00a0PPE<\/strong> is\u00a0points per entry<\/em>: if we say a gold is worth 3 points, a silver is 2, and a bronze is 1, then we can work out a sort of batting average. Bigger numbers are better for both, and the competition averages this year were MPC 61.1, and PPE 1.02. If you beat the odds on either of those (or better yet, both at once), you are, in a very real sense, doing well<\/em>, even if you don’t earn a title or make the headlines.<\/span>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span> For the breweries that entered ten or more beers (which is about half of them, and cuts out the noisier end of the data while still including all the champions), the table<\/span>4<\/sup><\/a><\/span> looks like this:<\/p>\n

Performance at the 2022 BGONZAs, by breweries with ten or more beers entered<\/h4>\n

n = number of entries, MPC = medal percentage, PPE = points per entry, G\/S\/B = individual medals<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t
Brewery<\/th>N<\/th>MPC<\/th>PPE<\/th>G<\/th>S<\/th>B<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Garage Project (Champion Large)<\/td>33<\/td>87.9<\/td>1.70<\/td>9<\/td>9<\/td>11<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Behemoth (Champion Medium)<\/td>45<\/td>66.7<\/td>1.13<\/td>5<\/td>11<\/td>14<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Three Boys (Champion Exhibitor)<\/td>13<\/td>92.3<\/td>1.92<\/td>3<\/td>7<\/td>2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
8 Wired<\/td>17<\/td>70.6<\/td>1.35<\/td>3<\/td>5<\/td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Emerson's<\/td>20<\/td>60<\/td>1.05<\/td>3<\/td>3<\/td>6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Three Sisters (Champion Small)<\/td>19<\/td>36.8<\/td>0.74<\/td>3<\/td>1<\/td>3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
McLeod's<\/td>23<\/td>69.6<\/td>1.22<\/td>2<\/td>8<\/td>6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Altitude<\/td>25<\/td>64<\/td>1.04<\/td>2<\/td>6<\/td>8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Good George<\/td>13<\/td>84.6<\/td>1.62<\/td>2<\/td>6<\/td>3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Shining Peak<\/td>15<\/td>66.7<\/td>1.20<\/td>2<\/td>4<\/td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Kainui (Champion Micro)<\/td>14<\/td>64.3<\/td>1.07<\/td>2<\/td>2<\/td>5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lion<\/td>35<\/td>65.7<\/td>1.06<\/td>1<\/td>12<\/td>10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Panhead<\/td>23<\/td>87<\/td>1.48<\/td>1<\/td>12<\/td>7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Beer Baroness<\/td>13<\/td>100<\/td>1.69<\/td>1<\/td>7<\/td>5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Mount<\/td>18<\/td>61.1<\/td>1.11<\/td>1<\/td>7<\/td>3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wigram<\/td>13<\/td>61.5<\/td>1.15<\/td>1<\/td>5<\/td>2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Liberty<\/td>10<\/td>80<\/td>1.50<\/td>1<\/td>5<\/td>2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Eddyline<\/td>20<\/td>70<\/td>1.00<\/td>1<\/td>4<\/td>9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sawmill<\/td>19<\/td>63.2<\/td>0.95<\/td>1<\/td>4<\/td>7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Brave<\/td>12<\/td>75<\/td>1.25<\/td>1<\/td>4<\/td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sunshine<\/td>15<\/td>53.3<\/td>0.87<\/td>1<\/td>3<\/td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fortune Favours<\/td>13<\/td>46.2<\/td>0.77<\/td>1<\/td>2<\/td>3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lumberjack<\/td>10<\/td>40<\/td>0.70<\/td>1<\/td>1<\/td>2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Deep Creek<\/td>20<\/td>90<\/td>1.35<\/td>0<\/td>9<\/td>9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Parrotdog<\/td>12<\/td>75<\/td>1.25<\/td>0<\/td>6<\/td>3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
ChinChiller<\/td>14<\/td>57.1<\/td>0.86<\/td>0<\/td>4<\/td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Lakeman<\/td>16<\/td>81.3<\/td>1.00<\/td>0<\/td>3<\/td>10<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
D.B.<\/td>22<\/td>50<\/td>0.64<\/td>0<\/td>3<\/td>8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Double Vision<\/td>16<\/td>50<\/td>0.69<\/td>0<\/td>3<\/td>5<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Ground Up<\/td>12<\/td>33.3<\/td>0.58<\/td>0<\/td>3<\/td>1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fork & Brewer<\/td>18<\/td>33.3<\/td>0.44<\/td>0<\/td>2<\/td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hop Federation<\/td>10<\/td>60<\/td>0.80<\/td>0<\/td>2<\/td>4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Sprig + Fern<\/td>20<\/td>50<\/td>0.55<\/td>0<\/td>1<\/td>9<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n\n

I commented a little on the new(ish) ‘Champion Beer’ award when it was first awarded<\/a>, and I honestly still don’t really\u00a0get<\/em> it. They take the gold medal winners from a category (like Stout & Porter, or International Lager) and taste them against each other to award a ‘Best in Class’ trophy,<\/span>5<\/sup><\/a><\/span> and then all of those<\/em> compete for the overall title. The first step there makes sense to me, but I struggle with how to judge this<\/em> pilsner-as-a-pilsner against that<\/em> porter-as-a-porter. It feels like it must eventually come down to voting on individual preference, which isn’t what this whole thing is supposed to be about. While it’s early days for pattern-spotting among the winners, here, I can’t help but notice that three out of four of them so far are vaguely-Belgian-inspired,<\/span>6<\/sup><\/a><\/span> which might say something about the backgrounds and biases of the judges, and what counts as prestigious around the final table.<\/p>\n

That said, G.P.’s ‘Chance, Luck and Magic’ has the extra honour of being a trophy-winner two years in a row, which certainly shores up the idea it was something special. Winning two gold medals<\/em> in successive years is rare enough,<\/span>7<\/sup><\/a><\/span> happening only three times at this year’s competition.<\/span>8<\/sup><\/a><\/span> By necessity, taking two trophies in a row is even more difficult, and I’m definitely keeping an eye out for that kind of serial success. The Australian International Beer Awards have a category (Consistency of Excellence) that specifically calls out and celebrates beers that win gold three years in a row. I think that’s an idea worth copying.<\/p>\n

\"Awards<\/a>
Garage Project have outgrown the old awards bin, in more ways than one<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

At the brewery level, though, Garage Project aren’t the first to win successive championships. Even just in recent years, Lion and Fork were both back-to-back champions (Large and Small, respectively) in 2018 and 2019, and Three Sisters are this year’s Champion Small Brewery after being 2021’s Champion Micro<\/em> Brewery, which is a very neat achievement indeed.<\/span>9<\/sup><\/a><\/span> But G.P. didn’t just spam the awards with beers to collect their unprecedented nine gold medals, their 33 entries (the third highest total in the running) earned them extremely high MPC and PPE scores, well into the top end of the field for each, and both are significant improvements on their already-impressive 2021 results. So while a repeat championship has been won before, this<\/em> repeat still stands out pretty clearly. Among the various Champion Breweries of the last five years, their performance is only topped by Liberty’s remarkable turn in the Medium tier in 2019<\/a> (with MPC 100 and PPE 2.18).<\/p>\n

Other than Three Boys,<\/span>10<\/sup><\/a><\/span> this year’s Champion Exhibitor (which is essentially awarded on the basis of PPE, with a few caveats), the Medium, Small, and Micro Champions this year are unusually off the pace in terms of MPC and PPE; if you sort the above table by either metric, all three drop out of the top ten, which hasn’t happened in previous years. It looks like Three Sisters enter many more beers than other breweries of their size, and given the way the championships are awarded (essentially a count of golds, with ties broken by lesser medals) it’s paid off for them two years running. Their MPC and PPE aren’t nearly as bad as Sam Adams \/ Boston Beer Company regularly had while winning the Champion International Brewery year after year,<\/span>11<\/sup><\/a><\/span> but still. Behemoth, 2022’s Champion Medium Brewery, improved significantly on their last year’s scores but also seemed to take the gong by playing the numbers game and again entering the most beers of any competitor. This is the competition as designed, after all, I just highlight this kind of thing because other systems are possible and a metric like mine can reveal some pretty impressive performances (I’m looking at Beer Baroness, Good George, Deep Creek and Panhead in particular) that otherwise go unheralded. In Australia, this year’s Indie Beer Awards are switching to a new method for crowning their size- and state-based champions<\/a>, with a focus on entrants’ “overall performance and not just their top beers”. I’ll be watching that with interest \u2014 and am very curious to peer under the hood and see their actual formula.<\/p>\n

The other thing that leapt out at me, this year, was the breakdown of performance at the awards by style category. The Guild included a handy table of totals in the results booklet,<\/span>12<\/sup><\/a><\/span> but when you put it into medal percentages and batting averages, there’s some pretty stark differences in how much of a fight there was over the various trophies. The new ‘No & Reduced Alcohol’ class (an excellent addition, I think, and certainly better than trying to shoehorn them all into ‘Experimental’ or making them compete against full-strength versions of whatever style) is unique in having\u00a0zero<\/em> gold medalists despite a healthy number of entrants. Meanwhile the other new category, ‘Juicy \/ Hazy’, was easily the most crowded race with nearly twice as many beers entered here as there was in the non-cloudy IPA bracket \u2014 and despite its novelty, results within it were pretty much on par with the rest of the competition. I’ve included the whole table below for the supercurious, and you can easily see that the variances are pretty wild both in terms of how many breweries were vying for different trophies and the average performance in those subsections.<\/p>\n

And… that’s all I’ve got for now. There’s a lot of data, especially after five years of publishing the results like this, but there’s always the risk of starting to hallucinate patterns where there are none if you gaze too long into the spreadsheets. Hopefully I’ve surfaced a few useful trends or bits of trivia, if nothing else \u2014 additional observations are, as always, welcome.<\/p>\n

Style category contestation at the 2022 BGONZAs<\/h4>\n

brewers contesting the category, total beers entered by all breweries, MPC = medal percentage, PPE = points per entry, G = total golds, GPC = percentage of beers winning gold<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\t\n\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\t\n\n\t
Category<\/th>Brewers<\/th>Beers<\/th>MPC<\/th>PPE<\/th>G<\/th>GPC<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
Amber \/ Dark Ale<\/td>18<\/td>19<\/td>73.7<\/td>1.00<\/td>1<\/td>5.3<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Amber \/ Dark Lager<\/td>16<\/td>18<\/td>77.8<\/td>1.17<\/td>1<\/td>5.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
British Ale<\/td>10<\/td>17<\/td>76.5<\/td>1.41<\/td>2<\/td>11.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
European Ale<\/td>23<\/td>37<\/td>70.3<\/td>1.24<\/td>6<\/td>16.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Fruit & Flavoured<\/td>39<\/td>99<\/td>70.7<\/td>1.15<\/td>9<\/td>9.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
International Lager<\/td>39<\/td>52<\/td>59.6<\/td>0.92<\/td>2<\/td>3.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
International Pale Ale<\/td>35<\/td>54<\/td>57.4<\/td>0.83<\/td>2<\/td>3.7<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
IPA<\/td>44<\/td>71<\/td>50.7<\/td>0.83<\/td>4<\/td>5.6<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Juicy \/ Hazy<\/td>56<\/td>135<\/td>57.8<\/td>0.99<\/td>10<\/td>7.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
No & Reduced Alcohol<\/td>20<\/td>29<\/td>62.1<\/td>0.86<\/td>0<\/td>0<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
NZ Styles<\/td>47<\/td>103<\/td>56.3<\/td>0.90<\/td>7<\/td>6.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Specialty & Experimental<\/td>42<\/td>82<\/td>79.3<\/td>1.34<\/td>11<\/td>13.4<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Stout & Porter<\/td>39<\/td>55<\/td>63.6<\/td>1.11<\/td>5<\/td>9.1<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wheat & Other Grain<\/td>15<\/td>16<\/td>43.8<\/td>0.94<\/td>3<\/td>18.8<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Wood & Barrel Aged<\/td>15<\/td>24<\/td>75<\/td>1.42<\/td>1<\/td>4.2<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n
Grand Total<\/th>78<\/th>811<\/th>63.4<\/th>1.05<\/th>64<\/th>7.9<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tfoot>\n<\/table>\n\n
\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

CORRECTION \u2014 the original version of this post incorrectly said that ‘Chance, Luck & Magic’ was the overall Champion Beer for the second year running. It wasn’t; Burkes Brewing ‘Unforgiven’ Porter won in 2021. Thanks to Michael Donaldson for noticing and letting me know. The data here is unaffected, but some of my commentary was … Continue reading Medals and math IV \u2014 two in a row seems like it means something…<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[74,47],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-20292","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-beer-awards","category-reports"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":906,"url":"https:\/\/philcook.net\/beerdiary\/2010\/10\/10\/beer-101-tasting-session\/","url_meta":{"origin":20292,"position":0},"title":"Beer 101 Tasting Session","author":"Phil","date":"October 10, 2010","format":false,"excerpt":"George (the gifter of the original Diary) organised a little tasting session at his house for a few friends of ours, with me playing the Informative Nerd. 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