{"id":19561,"date":"2017-12-05T11:23:41","date_gmt":"2017-12-04T22:23:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/philcook.net\/beerdiary\/?p=19561"},"modified":"2024-08-20T21:39:34","modified_gmt":"2024-08-20T09:39:34","slug":"post-hoc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/philcook.net\/beerdiary\/2017\/12\/05\/post-hoc\/","title":{"rendered":"A bad story hides a good point"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Stuff.co.nz<\/a>
Not news \u2014 for several different reasons<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Sometimes, being\u00a0nearly<\/em> right is actually worse than being completely wrong.\u00a0A story headlined Higher Alcohol Levels In Craft Beer Catching Drivers Out<\/a> was published yesterday, and proved to be an instructively terrible example of this. It’s broadly in the ‘single out beer to be the bad guy in a story about booze in general’ genre, but goes an extra step and zeroes in on “craft beer” for some speculative shaming. Frustratingly, they built their pile of wrongness incredibly close to an important point, which they just wound up burying in crap.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

First, it’s not clear\u00a0at all<\/em> from the article that there even exists a phenomenon that calls out for an explanation. There’s been a “spike in the number of drink-drivers caught in Nelson over the past couple of months”, we’re told, and that’s it. But Nelson, if you’re not familiar with it, is famously sunny and warm and therefore probably sees a seasonal spike in\u00a0everything<\/em>\u00a0this time of year, good and bad. Without anything further to suggest a\u00a0real trend,<\/span>1<\/sup><\/a><\/span>\u00a0the rest is superfluous; save your head-scratching about possible causes until you find an actual effect.<\/p>\n

Secondly,\u00a0literally nothing<\/em> connects the supposed “spike” to\u00a0craft beer, of whatever strength, other than the observation that sales are up.<\/span>2<\/sup><\/a><\/span> No results to report\u00a0from a “what were your last few drinks?” survey, not even a flimsy anecdote about noticing beer-related t-shirts on drivers who failed or\u00a0anything<\/em>. As it is, the article doesn’t come within a hundred miles of justifying its headline and amounts to a straight-up exercise in taking a logical fallacy out for a walk<\/a> and making various irrelevant observations along the way.<\/p>\n

Thirdly, and most importantly, this piece is\u00a0so\u00a0<\/em>obviously flawed that it’ll do nothing but embolden craft beer fans that are already often embarrassingly defensive and delusional about the individual and societal effects of their favourite kind of booze. All too frequently I see people in this community dismissive of the idea that “we” might be (or have) a problem in a way that is backed up by precisely as little evidence as this piece was, and often smacks of a really nasty classist atttidue. Maybe craft beer does<\/em> disproportionately correlate with certain kinds of harm in a way that warrants an intervention. We should try to find out. Pieces like this just strain the credibility of people who could help us do that.<\/p>\n

This could’ve easily been something sane and useful. The alcohol content of beer\u00a0is<\/em> much more variable than most wine or spirits \u2014 a difference which is magnified by the continued rise of “craft beer”.\u00a0And a seemingly-small increase in ABV has a counter-intuitively strong effect; a 6% beer\u00a0can be\u00a0twice<\/em> as intoxicating as a 5% beer drunk at the same speed, not just the 20% more you might assume.<\/span>3<\/sup><\/a><\/span> There is a real danger here, and getting behind the wheel of a tonne of metal and hurling it down the road at a dozen metres per second with any significant amount of booze in your system is the absolute paradigm of stupid and reckless and selfish behaviour. Clearer thinking is required about this, but here we just get a bunch of illogical nonsense and unsubstantiated guff. Here’s what an Alcohol Harm Prevention Officer should<\/em> say:<\/p>\n

Drink-driving numbers are down, and that’s great, but any number other than zero is too big. Beer’s a lot more varied than it used to be, and that’s good news too; there are tasty mild options as well as much stronger stuff. Know what you’re having, how it effects you, and\u00a0be responsible.\u00a0The best strategy: just don’t fuckin’ risk it. Thanks.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Sometimes, being\u00a0nearly right is actually worse than being completely wrong.\u00a0A story headlined Higher Alcohol Levels In Craft Beer Catching Drivers Out was published yesterday, and proved to be an instructively terrible example of this. It’s broadly in the ‘single out beer to be the bad guy in a story about booze in general’ genre, but … Continue reading A bad story hides a good point<\/span> →<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[55,76],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-19561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-interesting-finds","category-regulation"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":2139,"url":"https:\/\/philcook.net\/beerdiary\/2011\/03\/24\/nz-craft-beer-tv-mash-up\/","url_meta":{"origin":19561,"position":0},"title":"NZ Craft Beer TV ‘Mash Up’","author":"Phil","date":"March 24, 2011","format":false,"excerpt":"It is basically true that boys will take any excuse for a roadtrip. If the proposition also includes visiting basically every operating craft brewing in the entire country, it becomes quite literally amazing that what became 'NZ Craft Beer TV' didn't exist sooner. But now it does, which is handy.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Actual Diary entries"","block_context":{"text":"Actual Diary entries","link":"https:\/\/philcook.net\/beerdiary\/category\/diary\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"NZ Craft Beer TV 'Mash Up'","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/philcook.net\/beerdiary\/wp-content\/uploads\/NZ-Craft-Beer-TV-Mash-Up-225x300.jpg?resize=350%2C200","width":350,"height":200},"classes":[]},{"id":17491,"url":"https:\/\/philcook.net\/beerdiary\/2015\/09\/21\/beer-media-baseline\/","url_meta":{"origin":19561,"position":1},"title":"The beer-media baseline","author":"Phil","date":"September 21, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"I spent a few hours on Saturday in the beer-bunker that is Hashigo Zake, in the company of two-dozen-or-so like-minded folks and enjoying the Brewers Guild Awards beaming at us from Auckland over a mercifully-dependable livestream. 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